(2) Probabilities are Questionable
¥In a tomb with 10 boxes (assuming 4 female and 6 male interments), given that one name is ÒJesus,Ó what are the chances he is a son of ÒJosephÓ and that the tomb also contains a ÒMaryÓ?
That the father is Joseph, p(J) = .083
That one of the interred is a Mary, p(M) = 1 - (1-.213)4 = 1-.384 = .616
P(both J&M) = .083 x .616 = .0511 = over 1:20
¥Since there have already been 22 ossuaries found with ÒJesusÓ on them, this combination should not be too surprising.